July 12th, 2015
A disturbance just off the North Carolina coast has shown signs of organization this morning. Although I can’t be certain, it looks like 92L began as one of the storms that slammed through the northeast late last week. 92L is not a threat to the Georgia coast. Maine and Newfoundland might get a hit in a few days.
As of 8 AM, 92L had winds of 25 MPH. The NHC has given the storm a 20 percent chance of further organization.
June 16th, 2015
Last night, the NHC upgraded storm Invest 91L to Tropical Storm Bill. Even though Bill will be a short lived tropical storm, it has the potential of causing torrential rains and flooding over the next few days in Texas and points east. Parts of the Texas coast are forecast to receive up to four feet of rain.
As of the 8 AM advisory, Bill was located about 30 miles from the Texas coast, had winds of 60 MPH and a central pressure of 997 MB. The outskirts of Bill are already making landfall.
As for the future of the storm, Bill is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by tomorrow morning, make a gentle curve towards the east while traveling north, and eventually pass by through the states of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Ohio and Indiana and then continue east. Tropical storm force winds extend 150 miles out from the storm’s center and the rain field is much larger. Don’t assume that you will be free of effects simply because you live 100 miles away from the eventual storm track.
June 15th, 2015
The center of the large storm Invest 91L has reached the halfway point between the Yucatan and the Texas coast. Winds continue at 35 MPH for the eastern and northeastern quadrants. It is moving towards the western Texas coast at 15 MPH. A hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the disturbance to see how well it has organized. As of the 8 AM NHC outlook, Invest 91L has an 80 percent chance of organizing enough to be declared a tropical depression or named storm. If it does get a name, it will be “Bill.”
As of 8 AM, the tracks for this storm predict that it will move through eastern Texas, then make a slow turn towards the east, and pass through Oklahoma, Kentucky, West Virginia and Virgina, finally entering the Atlantic in about ten days. The storm is fairly large, and will affect weather at least 300 miles from its center.
June 13th, 2015
This morning, the NHC began posting statements regarding storm Invest 91L. This slowly growing storm system is currently centered over the Yucatan peninsula and is heading in a generally northern direction towards the central Texas Coast. It will not arrive for five days, and according to the NHC, there is a 50 percent chance it will be organized enough to be considered a tropical weather system. After that, the storm is forecast to travel further north and then make an abrupt eastern turn, heading over Tennessee and North Carolina.
At the moment, it has 35 MPH winds. I have no other information regarding pressure or temperatures.
May 8th, 2015
It’s three weeks before the start of the 2015 hurricane season and we have our first subtropical/tropical storm. As of the 8 AM advisory, Subtropical storm Ana was stationary off the coast of South Carolina, has a central pressure of 1005 MB and a wind speed of 45 MPH. Ana is forecast to slowly approach the South Carolina coast with an eventual landfall near or over Myrtle Beach Sunday night. As such, aside from the rain from an outer rain band last night, Ana is not a threat to the Georgia coast.
The NWS is forecasting 35 MPH winds with 45 MPH gusts and two tenths of an inch of rain every six hours from Saturday morning to Sunday night for Myrtle Beach. There’s also a rip current warning for the area.
September 6th, 2014
There is a new disturbance over us and I don’t know the first thing about it. It’s very frustrating, but there’s only the brief mention of the disturbance in the NHC’s tropical discussion. Nothing, no where else. I don’t yet know exactly where the storm is, how strong it is, how much it will affect us, or even if it’s a real storm yet. All I know for a location is a vague “off the Georgia Coast” and that the outlook calls for the disturbance to move towards the northeast. From our local weather, there’s an 80 percent chance of rain today with about an inch forecast to fall.
And of course, there are other storms out there. I missed a mention of Tropical Storm Dolly a few days ago, which traversed the Mexico coastline. And several waves that have dissipated since I last wrote. And two new ones, in the far east Atlantic. I’m keeping an eye on them. One reminder, the peak of the season is only a few days away … September 9th.
August 26th, 2014
There are two new areas of concern from the NHC’s outlook of yesterday.
One area is already in the Gulf of Mexico and heading along the Texas coast towards the Mexican coast. Although there is only a ten percent chance of development of this system over the next five days, it will still bring a lot of showers to communities along both coasts.
The second is 97L, which I noted yesterday. The track trend is starting to bend towards the north, just as Cristobal’s did. It’s eventual path, according to the NHC, does look like it will pass the Georgia coast. This is a storm for next week.
And a third area is about to exit the west coast of Africa. As of the five day outlook, there is a 40 percent chance of more development over the next five days. This storm is so far to the east that I don’t believe it to be any threat to the Georgia coast.
And then Hurricane Cristobal. No threat at all to the U.S. east coast. But the ensemble models provided by the Weather Underground web site show the storm passing over Iceland in a week. On satellite, Cristobal has spread out quite a bit, joining a weather pattern hundreds of miles from north northeast to south southwest. The SSE tail of Cristobal look long enough to pass over Britain a day later.
August 25th, 2014
TD 4 was upgraded to TS Cristobal yesterday and is now heading northward, far from coastal Georgia. The storm is now predicted to make its closest approach to us on Tuesday afternoon, more than 400 miles away. I expected Cristobal to be much closer, and I’m pleased that is not the case. As of the 5 AM advisory, Cristobal had winds of 60 MPH and a central pressure of 994 MB. The storm is expected to become a hurricane within 36 hours.
The NHC is now tracking a new storm system, 97L, and its tracks predict that it will head around Cuba and into the Gulf. Considering that Cristobal’s initial track showed much the same path, I’m waiting for reality to show the real track.
August 23rd, 2014
Storm 96L has become organized to be considered a tropical storm. As of the 5 PM advisory, TD 4 had winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1005 MB. The storm is quite ragged on satellite and is barely holding on to a TS status, but once past the Turk and Caicos Islands and in a better environment, it should gain organization and strength.
The intensity and track forecast is very uncertain at this point, so I’m very tentatively going to say that the closest approach of the storm will be as a category one hurricane about 400 miles off our coast by Thursday. That track will change. Some long term models show the storm passing between Iceland and Britain in about two weeks.
August 22nd, 2014
Storm 96L is gaining organization and now has an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm. As of the 8 AM discussion, the storm will be entering a region that is more conducive to strengthening over the next few days. If the storm gains a name, it will be Cristobal.
According to the forecast track, 96L will pass just north of the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola and then the Bahamas. After that, the storm is forecast to take a sharp northeast turn, taking it away from any land. Personally, I think the track will be far less sharp and that the Outer Banks will feel some effects from the storm.
96L had winds of 40 MPH and a central pressure of 1010 MB. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the storm from 1:15 PM and 5:30 PM.