Invest 97L

October 3rd, 2013

I’ve been watching the progress of Invest 97L very closely as it has gained both strength and organization. The NHC has warned in its 8 AM outlook that Invest 97L is about to be named a tropical storm. It will be named Karen.

I have not posted anything for the last several months because there was no apparent threat from tropical weather to the Georgia coast. Now we have a threat. The storm tracks have been pretty steady for several days to take the storm straight over Atlanta. This morning the track had shifted to the east, over Athens.

Update: 9:15 AM

The NHC has begun issuing advisories for Tropical Storm Karen. The official forecast track has Karen passing over Tallahassee, FL Sunday morning and proceeding north over Alabama. Karen is forecast to be a subtropical storm by that time.

Heating Up

August 14th, 2013

The 2013 hurricane season is beginning to heat up a little bit. At the moment, there are two areas that are trying to organize:

1 – In the far east Atlantic, the NHC is assigning this area a 40 percent chance of organizing and
2 – In the mid-Caribbean there is an large area that has a 30 percent chance.

Weather Underground has not posted tracks on these two areas yet, but I expect something soon. I’m keeping an eye on both of them for developments.

And remember, there is less than a month before the season’s peak of September 9th.

Tropical Depression Four

July 24th, 2013

Just a quick note: I’m on my way out the door in a few minuets so I’ll post more later. Tropical depression four has formed in the far east Atlantic and won’t be a threat to the U.S. coast for at least the next five days.

Still a threat

July 11th, 2013

TS Chantal has officially dissipated, and is no longer tracked as a tropical storm by the NHC. This does not mean that the storm has become any less of a threat than it was before.

The storm can be clearly seen on water vapor satellite and it’s still moving in a general northwesterly direction. In my opinion, there is still a high chance that our weekend weather will be heavily influenced by the remnants of Chantal, including periods of rain, heavy surf, rip tides and possible tornadoes.

2 AM Sunday

July 10th, 2013

My apologies for not posting yesterday. I was out on a field call. This does not mean that I didn’t continue to follow the progress of TS Chantal; far from it.

For all three of the last advisories and graphics (5PM, 11PM and 5AM), the point of landfall for TS Chantal has remained squarely onto coastal Glynn County. The only thing that has changed is the timing.

As of the 5 AM advisory, TS Chantal will come onto land at 2 AM Sunday morning. The storm is forecast to have winds of 30 MPH. This last is good news.

Currently, Chantal is located at 16.5 north, 70.8 west and is moving towards the west at 29 MPH. The storm has winds of 45 MPH and a central pressure of 1011 MB. According to the NHC, Chantal is being torn apart by a combination of shear winds, its forward speed and interactions with land, and is losing its tropical characteristics.

I’m keeping a close eye on this storm, as forecasts can change.

TS Chantal

July 8th, 2013

As anticipated, the NHC has declared TS Chantal in the Atlantic. This was at 11 PM last night. As of the 5 AM advisory, TS Chantal is located at 10.6 north, 50.6 west, or about 2,100 miles from the Georgia coast. The advisory states that Chantal has a central pressure of 1007 MB and winds of 40 MPH.

The forward speed of TS Chantal is 25 MPH or about 85 hours away from Glynn County. Because the storm is moving so quickly, the NHC does not anticipate it to become a strong hurricane. The track has shifted northward a bit and is now brushing eastern Cuba at the end of the three-day forecast period. After that, the five day forecast shows the storm curving north, paralleling the east coast of the United States.

The hurricane hunters will be investigating the storm this afternoon, being on station at around 4:30 PM ET.

Invest 95L

July 7th, 2013

Lest anyone think that I’ve missed the ball on Invest 95L, I haven’t. I accidently posted a blog entry as a page. Here is what I wrote this morning:

What might be the next tropical storm system to threaten the Georgia coast may be beginning to form in the Atlantic ocean. The storm system, named Invest 95L, is located at 8 north, 37 west, or about 2,800 miles from St. Simons. As of the 8 PM discussion, the storm has a 1009 MB low.

At the moment, the NHC is giving the storm a 30% chance of further organization. A track map from Weather Underground shows that Invest 95L is heading towards the Florida east coast with a near brush in eight to ten days. Of course, the track will change, the only question I have at the moment is the direction and magnitude of the change.

I’d like to note that this post is being written on the desktop of my new Windows 7 machine, which is still being operated by remote desktop. I’m still waiting on the monitor.

As of the 8PM discussion from the NHC, Invest 95L now has a 70% chance of organizing. The environment is now labeled as “conducive to development.” This is a far stronger statement than what I saw this morning. The NHC expects the storm to be organized enough to become either a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday morning. If Invest 95L becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Chantal.

For some good news, the track has shifted southward of Cuba. That’s a good trend as far as I’m concerned.

I’ll know much more tomorrow afternoon, as the Hurricane Hunters will be flying into the storm at that time.

Almost but not quite

June 22nd, 2013

An area just off the North/South Carolina coasts has begun to organize, but probably won’t before moving inland. At the moment, the NHC is assigning a zero percent probability for the area of storms to become a tropical depression.

This does not mean that there’s a zero percent chance of rain from this storm system. It extends down the coast and along the Georgia and Florida coast to Jacksonville. The rain we had yesterday was from this storm system, and we should have a bit more today.

There’s nothing really unexpected or dangerous. Just watch out for sudden rain.

Passage Of Andrea

June 7th, 2013

According to the three-day weather history, TS Andrea passed over Glynn County at around 1:15 AM ET. It was at that point the pressure was at 998 MB, the low point for the night.

Currently, the center of TS Andrea is located at the Georgia/South Carolina border and is heading northeast at 28 MPH. The storm has winds of 45 MPH and a central pressure of 997 MB.

Unfortunately, local coverage of the storm is behind a paywall, but here’s a link to real time coverage from news.google.com.

And now, back to coverage of everything else for the season!

Last gasp before landfall

June 6th, 2013

As of the 5 PM advisory, TS Andrea had winds of 65 MPH and a central pressure of 993 MB. Andrea is located at 29.5 north, 83.4 west. That position is about 140 miles away from Coastal Glynn County. If Andrea continues at its current 17 MPH, the center of the storm is about eight hours away. I’ve been tracking our local air pressure and it has begun to fall. At the moment, it was at 29.73 inches, or 1006 MB.

Our weather forecast is full of warnings but so far very little has happened. There’s been a little rain and a bit of wind, but that’s all. But now is not the time to relax and say that nothing will happen. Over the next eight hours, things could get much worse.

It is at this point in time in the hourly forecast that the winds and amount of rain start to rapidly worsen. This is forecast to continue until about 10 PM, when winds are predicted to by 40 MPH with 53 MPH gusts. There is a tornado watch until 10 PM, a flood advisory and of course, a tropical storm warning.

All this leads me back to the point I make in most of my posts: take this threat seriously until it becomes clear the threat is overblown. But it might not be.

I’ll have more about passage of Andrea tomorrow morning.