July 23rd, 2014
Tropical Depression Two has dissipated two days before reaching the Windward Islands. It’s still a storm and expected to bring gusty winds and rain to the Lesser Antilles over the next few days.
The GOES satellite still shows the storm so I’m going to continue to track it. It might regenerate if it hits the right conditions.
July 21st, 2014
Storm 92L has organized into Tropical Depression Two. As of the 5PM advisory, TD 2 had winds of 35 MPH and had a central pressure of 1012 MB. The storm is located more than a week away from the United States. Since it is a tropical depression with 35 MPH winds, it won’t take too much more to change into a tropical storm. If it does, it will be named Bertha.
I must say that this is very fast. There must be one heck of a hot spot in the ocean driving this.
July 21st, 2014
There is a new tropical weather disturbance developing from a 1012 MB low in the mid-Atlantic. The storm is labeled 92L. This morning, the NHC had assigned a 20 percent chance that the storm would gain more organization. As of 11 AM, that had climbed to 50 percent. The NHC outlook states that the environment will worsen in a few days, which could keep the storm from gaining more strength.
As of the 8 AM model run, the tracks show the storm heading just south of Cuba and then into the Gulf in about six days. That track will of course change, they always do. In which direction the change will occur is the question.
July 4th, 2014
Hurricane Arthur has weakened since last night. As of the 11 AM update, Arthur had winds of 90 MPH and a central pressure of 976 MB. There are still coastal areas that are under threat from the storm, including Chesapeake Bay and Newfoundland.
Here is a screen cap of last night’s passage over the Outer Banks:
I’m still tracking the storm as well as keeping up with other events in the Atlantic. Currently, there are five tropical waves, none of which show signs of development.
July 3rd, 2014
A few hours after Arthur pass by Glynn County, it was designated a hurricane. The center of the storm is now approaching the Outer Banks and it looks very impressive.
As of the 5 PM advisory, Arthur had winds of 90 MPH and a central pressure of 979 MB. The NHC predicts that by the time the eye passes over the Outer Banks Arthur will be category two.
And as you can see, everything from Jacksonville to Valdosta is being hit pretty hard. This isn’t directly connected to Arthur; these storms are going around the underside of the hurricane. I guess the natural order of summer is trying hard to assert itself.
For real-time coverage of Arthur, you can follow this news.google.com link.
July 2nd, 2014
It looks like coastal Georgia will receive minimal impact from Tropical Storm Arthur. Our forecast calls for light, sporadic rain (from outer rain bands), 18 MPH winds with gusts to 28, and heavy surf. The NWS has issued a rip tide warning until tomorrow.
As of the 5 AM advisory, Arthur’s closest approach will occur some time after 2 AM Thursday morning. It might gain enough strength to be a hurricane by that time. I’ll keep an eye on the pressure reading to see when that moment occurs. According to the 8 AM advisory, Arthur had winds of 60 MPH and a central pressure of 998 MB. The tropical storm wind field extends only 80 miles from the center, so Saint Simons is well out of the way.
Other communities are less lucky. The storm is expected to brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday with hurricane force winds. Nature will supply the fireworks for their Fourth Of July, if anyone is left on the Outer Banks after evacuations.
July 1st, 2014
TD-1 has been upgraded to tropical storm status. It is now designated Tropical Storm Arthur. As of the 11 AM advisory, TS Arthur had winds of 40 MPH and a central pressure of 1007 MB. The track forecast shows the storm passing coastal Glynn County Wednesday afternoon and evening with winds at near hurricane strength.
Since the center of Arthur will be around 100 miles away, the computers that produce our local forecast have our winds at around 10 MPH. I’m not too sure I believe that, but we’ll have to see.
July 1st, 2014
Storm 91L has been upgraded to a tropical depression. Its designation is now Tropical Depression One. As of the 5 AM advisory, TD-1 had winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1007 MB. Right now, TD-1 is located about 90 miles southeast of the Kennedy Space Center. The storm is stationary, but the NHC expects it to begin moving north in a few hours. As for strengthening, TD-1 is slowly becoming a tropical storm. I expect it to be upgraded sometime this afternoon.
The current NHC forecast track shows TD-1 making its closest approach to coastal Glynn County sometime Wednesday afternoon. The storm will be about 100 miles from the coast at that point.
June 30th, 2014
The storm 91L has been traveling south at about five miles per hour for the last several days, but that journey is about at an end. Sometime this evening, the storm will reverse direction and turn towards us. The storm will pass us sometime on Wednesday. That fact is now being reflected in our local forecast. The chances of rain on Wednesday start at around 30 percent and slowly increase to 60 percent. Wind will be between 10 and 14 MPH. Rainfall amounts are unknown. I’d also watch for rip currents. It will take about 48 hours for the storm to clear our coast, by which time it will be raining on Myrtle Beach, SC.
As of the 2 PM outlook, 91L has an 80 percent chance of further strengthening and winds of 35 MPH. It might be declared a tropical depression by the time its center gets here.
June 29th, 2014
The Hurricane Hunters will investigate the storm system I noted yesterday, now being referred to as Invest 91L. The flight will leave at around 1:45 PM and be on station fifteen minutes later. We should know something by around 3 PM.
91L has a large surface area, influencing weather from the NC/SC border to Palm Beach, FL. There’s still very little information regarding 91L’s pressure. The winds have been measured at 25 MPH. 91L is now centered 230 miles off the coast of Jacksonville, and is slowly drifting southward. The models are coming into agreement regarding the path of the storm; basically the center of the storm will continue to drift southwards for a few days, make a gentle westward turn and then head north along the coast, arriving right next to Jacksonville Thursday and Saint Simons on Friday. Of course, that path could change. The NHC is now giving the storm a 40 percent chance of further organization in the next 48 hours and a 70 percent chance over the next five days.
At the moment, our local forecast does not reflect the reality of the storm. There is still a 20-30 percent chance of rain for the next three days. I suppose if 91L is upgraded to TD-1, our forecast will change. We might be in for a lot of rain, and rip tides will be a danger to swimmers. Be cautious.