July 30th, 2014
The storm designated 93L might be losing a bit of steam but gaining organization. In the last 24 hours, the central pressure of 93L has raised to 1012 MB. The winds are unchanged at 35 MPH. The NHC is assigning a 70 percent chance that the storm will organize into a tropical storm. The tracks are now showing that the storm will pass much nearer to the coast and might even have a landfall on the Outer Banks. One track is showing the storm taking an abrupt turn towards the north in about six days, which would place the storm’s eventual path between the coast and Bermuda.
This data changes every day and there will be more changes. At this point, the storm poses no threat to the Georgia coast.
July 29th, 2014
I’ve been watching a new storm, designated 93L by the NOAA, develop in the eastern Atlantic and it looks like it might be declared tropical within the next 48 hours. Storm 93L is currently about 2500 miles from the United States and will take more than a week to get here. If 93L becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Bertha.
As of the 8 AM NHC outlook, 93L had a 70 percent chance of further development in the next 48 hours and an 80 percent chance within the next five days. The storm has winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1010 MB. The storm is fairly large in extent, more than 400 miles from side to side. The current tracks have the storm curving past Florida and Georgia and making a close pass by the Outer Banks in about 10 days. Evan as a non-tropical storm, it could influence our weather, giving us some heavy surf.
July 23rd, 2014
Tropical Depression Two has dissipated two days before reaching the Windward Islands. It’s still a storm and expected to bring gusty winds and rain to the Lesser Antilles over the next few days.
The GOES satellite still shows the storm so I’m going to continue to track it. It might regenerate if it hits the right conditions.
July 21st, 2014
Storm 92L has organized into Tropical Depression Two. As of the 5PM advisory, TD 2 had winds of 35 MPH and had a central pressure of 1012 MB. The storm is located more than a week away from the United States. Since it is a tropical depression with 35 MPH winds, it won’t take too much more to change into a tropical storm. If it does, it will be named Bertha.
I must say that this is very fast. There must be one heck of a hot spot in the ocean driving this.
July 21st, 2014
There is a new tropical weather disturbance developing from a 1012 MB low in the mid-Atlantic. The storm is labeled 92L. This morning, the NHC had assigned a 20 percent chance that the storm would gain more organization. As of 11 AM, that had climbed to 50 percent. The NHC outlook states that the environment will worsen in a few days, which could keep the storm from gaining more strength.
As of the 8 AM model run, the tracks show the storm heading just south of Cuba and then into the Gulf in about six days. That track will of course change, they always do. In which direction the change will occur is the question.
July 4th, 2014
Hurricane Arthur has weakened since last night. As of the 11 AM update, Arthur had winds of 90 MPH and a central pressure of 976 MB. There are still coastal areas that are under threat from the storm, including Chesapeake Bay and Newfoundland.
Here is a screen cap of last night’s passage over the Outer Banks:
I’m still tracking the storm as well as keeping up with other events in the Atlantic. Currently, there are five tropical waves, none of which show signs of development.
July 3rd, 2014
A few hours after Arthur pass by Glynn County, it was designated a hurricane. The center of the storm is now approaching the Outer Banks and it looks very impressive.
As of the 5 PM advisory, Arthur had winds of 90 MPH and a central pressure of 979 MB. The NHC predicts that by the time the eye passes over the Outer Banks Arthur will be category two.
And as you can see, everything from Jacksonville to Valdosta is being hit pretty hard. This isn’t directly connected to Arthur; these storms are going around the underside of the hurricane. I guess the natural order of summer is trying hard to assert itself.
For real-time coverage of Arthur, you can follow this news.google.com link.
July 2nd, 2014
It looks like coastal Georgia will receive minimal impact from Tropical Storm Arthur. Our forecast calls for light, sporadic rain (from outer rain bands), 18 MPH winds with gusts to 28, and heavy surf. The NWS has issued a rip tide warning until tomorrow.
As of the 5 AM advisory, Arthur’s closest approach will occur some time after 2 AM Thursday morning. It might gain enough strength to be a hurricane by that time. I’ll keep an eye on the pressure reading to see when that moment occurs. According to the 8 AM advisory, Arthur had winds of 60 MPH and a central pressure of 998 MB. The tropical storm wind field extends only 80 miles from the center, so Saint Simons is well out of the way.
Other communities are less lucky. The storm is expected to brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday with hurricane force winds. Nature will supply the fireworks for their Fourth Of July, if anyone is left on the Outer Banks after evacuations.
July 1st, 2014
TD-1 has been upgraded to tropical storm status. It is now designated Tropical Storm Arthur. As of the 11 AM advisory, TS Arthur had winds of 40 MPH and a central pressure of 1007 MB. The track forecast shows the storm passing coastal Glynn County Wednesday afternoon and evening with winds at near hurricane strength.
Since the center of Arthur will be around 100 miles away, the computers that produce our local forecast have our winds at around 10 MPH. I’m not too sure I believe that, but we’ll have to see.
July 1st, 2014
Storm 91L has been upgraded to a tropical depression. Its designation is now Tropical Depression One. As of the 5 AM advisory, TD-1 had winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1007 MB. Right now, TD-1 is located about 90 miles southeast of the Kennedy Space Center. The storm is stationary, but the NHC expects it to begin moving north in a few hours. As for strengthening, TD-1 is slowly becoming a tropical storm. I expect it to be upgraded sometime this afternoon.
The current NHC forecast track shows TD-1 making its closest approach to coastal Glynn County sometime Wednesday afternoon. The storm will be about 100 miles from the coast at that point.