Passage Of TS Julia at 5 AM

September 14th, 2016

The last thing I ever expected is that Invest 93L would organize over land into a tropical storm. But, that’s what happened last night. Starting at 11 PM last night, the NHC began issuing advisories to TS Julia, just as the storm was passing Saint Mary’s, Georgia. The storm was and still is, moving very slowly to the north.

The center of TS Julia passed Saint Simons at around 5 AM this morning, as signified by the low pressure of 1011 MB. All of Julia’s rain activity seems to be in the northeast quadrant of Julia, and radar shows that has passed north of us. The clouds in general are in the eastern half of the storm, so those will be with us for a while.

As far as total rainfall, the weather station at McKinnon Airport (KSSI) is reporting a total of 6.47 inches since yesterday morning at 9 AM. Top winds were recorded at around 2 AM, with a speed of 28 MPH and gusts of 38 MPH. More often than not, after 2 AM winds have been measured above 20 MPH.

Landfall of Hurricane Hermione Soon

September 1st, 2016

As of the 11 PM advisory, Hurricane Hermione had winds of 80 MPH and a central pressure of 983 MB. The storm continues to move towards the NNE at 14 mph. The center of Hermione is expected to make landfall in a few hours.

Hermione’s closest approach to coastal Glynn is estimated at around 65 miles to the west in a little less than twelve hours. We are already under a large rain band that will rotate out in about six hours, but by then the central part of the storm should be close enough for us to be under another band. In other words, we might be under continuous rain clouds for the next eighteen hours.

Keeping in mind that the NWS forecast almost always over-estimates threats, the coming hours will bring us high winds, steady medium and heavy rainfall, and possible tornadoes. The key word in my previous statement is “almost.” It could turn out as bad as predicted but it’s hard to know for sure. Still, it’s wise to be prepared without being alarmist.

Starting at around 3 AM our winds will begin to rise from their current 18 MPH to a peak of around 50 MPH with 67 MPH gusts at around 7 AM. The winds are forecast to stay peaked until 11 AM when they will gradually fall back to the 15-20 MPH range by 4 PM. Rainfall will be in the order of 3-1/2 to 4-1/2 inches by nightfall. Tropical storm Dolly dumped almost six inches of rain on us four years ago, so Hermione’s rain will not be outside our experience.

At the moment, there is a tornado watch until 8 AM and a flood watch through tomorrow evening.

What I’ll be watching for more than anything else is the barometric pressure. It’s falling very slowly as the storm approaches, and when it starts rising again, I’ll know that the center has passed. There will still be high winds and a lot of rain to fall after that, but at least I’ll know the storm will end.

Update: a very useful feature from Georgia Power called “the Outage Map” shows that 433 people are without power on the Island.

Tropical Depressions 08 and 09

August 30th, 2016

Over the next five days our weather will be influenced by, not one, but two tropical depressions.

Just south of TD 08 is a large area of water vapor and storms extending down the South Carolina, Georgia and Florida coasts. This area of moisture is flowing from the Atlantic and is helping to steer TD 08 away from land. Our weather is already being affected, with the thick cloud cover and rip tide warnings being the most visible results. There is a 50 to 60 percent chance of rain because of this moisture through tomorrow night. The NWS is forecasting at least an inch of rain over the next 48 hours. As usual with rain forecasts, we will probably wind up a bit short of that.

Starting Thursday morning, TD 09 will begin to affect our weather in a big way. The chances of rain increase to 70 to 80 percent, and the wind and rainfall forecasts both increase to tropical storm levels. The rain forecast from 7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Friday tops three inches and the winds are expected to peak at around 2 AM Friday with 50 MPH winds and 65 MPH gusts.

As of the 11 AM tracks of Tropical Depression 09, the storm will be passing over Jacksonville, Florida at 7 PM, Thursday evening. This is also the storm’s closet approach to Glynn County. The tracks have remained remarkably consistent over the last twenty-four hours, so at this point I feel safe in saying that Thursday and Friday’s weather forecast from the NWS is fairly accurate in timing if not in magnitude.

As I wrote above, the NWS has, far more often than not, over-estimated the winds and rain from a passing tropical system. Even so, be prepared for anything, including high winds, blinding rain, rip tides, and tornadoes.

Passage Of TS Colin

June 7th, 2016

Tropical Storm Colin made its closest passage to Coastal Georgia at around 4 AM, as evidenced by a low pressure of 1003.1 millibars. The wind peaked at midnight at 15 MPH. The total rainfall was just shy of three inches. Overall, not a bad result of the passage of a tropical storm.

TS Colin is a diminishing threat to the coast. By this time tomorrow, the storm will be well out at sea.

Tropical Storm Warning

June 6th, 2016

Coastal Glynn County has been placed under an open ended tropical storm warning. The rain will continue to worsen until 1 AM as the center passes, then gradually lighten until tomorrow evening. A total of more than two inches is expected. The wind is forecast to stay steady until around 10 PM when it will climb to 40 MPH with 55 MPH gusts. The winds will gradually die down to about 10 MPH after that. There is also a flood watch until 7 AM tomorrow.

As of the 5 AM advisory TS Colin had winds of 50 MPH and a central pressure of 1005 MB. The storm is moving towards the north-northeast at 14 MPH. Landfall is forecast at around 8 PM tonight and the center is now predicted to re-emerge over the ocean just north of Jacksonville, Florida.

Tropical Storm Watch

June 5th, 2016

As of the 5 PM advisory, the NHC has declared the coast from the Altamaha River in Georgia to Flagler Beach, Florida to be under a tropical storm watch. This is an open-ended watch, presumably ending Tuesday night.

As of the 5 PM advisory, TD3 had winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1005 MB. The landfall and exit have been moved a few hours, but the exit point is still at Glynn County at around 1 AM Tuesday night. The winds are forecast to be 40 MPH with gusts to 56 MPH.

Tropical Depression Three

June 5th, 2016

As of 11 AM, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 93L to Tropical Depression Three. It won’t be too long before TD3 is upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin.

As of the 11 AM advisory, TD3 had winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1005 MB. According to the current forecast track, the storm will achieve landfall at 7 PM at Perry, Florida. From there the storm is predicted to continue northeast over land until 3 AM Tuesday morning. TD3 will then re-enter the ocean at Glynn County.

Our weather forecast reflects this. We are forecast to get more than two inches of rain from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM Tuesday. From 8 PM Monday to 2 AM Tuesday, we are forecast to get more then eight tenths of an inch.

This is not connected to the storm we’re getting today. That storm started off in Texas a few days ago and has been slowly moving towards the east.

93L About To Organize?

June 4th, 2016

Invest 93L is showing increasing signs of organizing into a tropical depression. Although there is no circulation on time lapse or a central low, wind speeds have increased to 35 MPH and the amount of rain clouds and moisture in the region has vastly increased. The NHC has increased the chances of the storm organizing to 70 percent over the next 48 hours. There is a hurricane hunter flight scheduled for tomorrow.

The tracks haven’t changed very much since yesterday – 93L is now predicted to have a landfall just north of Tampa, Florida and move back over the ocean at around Jacksonville in three days.

Either way. we’re likely to get a lot of rain and strange winds, as well as rip tides. The forecast from the NWS is now showing an 80 percent chance of rain on Monday, with more than an inch falling. Of course, we have chances of rain tomorrow, but it looks more normal. Basically, some popups and an afternoon downpour. That’s coming from a storm over Alabama. But none from 93L until 7 AM Monday morning.

Invest 93L

June 3rd, 2016

Normally, I wouldn’t post about an invest storm. However, Invest 93L’s track has been analyzed and it appears that the storm will be passing over northern Florida or southern Georgia in three to four days. 93L might organize enough to be considered a tropical depression by that time.

At the moment, 93L is a series of storms just off the coast from the Yucatan. The storms have no central low, but that is expected to appear in a few days.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm will first travel towards the northwest, then turn towards the northeast, heading for the Florida coast and eventually hitting the ocean south of Saint Augustine.

The tracks on Weather Underground show a sharp turn in three days towards the east, with the center of the different models first passing over Panama City, Florida, then northern Florida, Southeast Georgia, the returning to the ocean a bit south of Glynn County.

As of the 2 PM model run, the storm had winds of 30 MPH, a 20 percent chance of organizing in two days and 60 percent in five days.

What happened to TD01 and Alex?

May 28th, 2016

I had expected this storm to be Tropical Depression 01 and its name to be Alex, and was surprised when it went right to TD02 and Bonnie.

The confusion comes from the fact that TD01/Alex was a late/early tropical storm system in January.

This is the page from the NHC regarding TD01/Alex.

Now back to TS Bonnie, which seems to stalled out over Charleston, SC. The storm may be ready to make a sharp northern turn.