TS Erika and the Georgia Coast

August 27th, 2015

The endpoint of the NHC storm track for TS Erika keeps trending east and west plus or minus 100 miles. As of the 11 AM advisory and the current track, it appears that Erika will pass the coast of Glynn County on Wednesday afternoon by a very comfortable margin of about 150 miles. As of the 11 AM advisory, Erika had winds of 50 MPH and a central pressure of 1006 MB.

I’ve seen some discussion on social media of whether we should evacuate. At this point, I don’t think so. The angle of the track over the next 48 hours is important and so is the geography of Florida and the Georgia Cut. The storm would have to begin its northern turn on Saturday and maintain a straight line of approach for five days or more to reach us directly. That’s highly unlikely. Looking at the endpoint is important, too. If the endpoint moves west and ends up over Florida, by the time Erika reaches us, it will be a tropical storm. If the track jogs east, it will mess us even further.

As always, the key is to wait and be watchful. Mostly, we have to watch that angle of NW travel and the trend, east or west, of the endpoint over multiple tracks.

TS Erika and next Tuesday

August 26th, 2015

Over the last 48 hours, the track of Tropical Storm Erika has trended towards the west. As of this morning’s 5AM track, Erika is forecast to brush the southeast Florida coast sometime Monday morning and pass Glynn County at around 8 AM next Tuesday as a minimal hurricane.

Mr. Brennen, the forecaster this morning, is very quick to point out that the error at the end of five days is plus or minus 240 miles. That means that the five day forecast is far from certain. I concur … in fact, I’ve been pointing that out on this blog for many years. With all that said, now would be a good time for residents of the Florida and Georgia coast to review their evacuation plans and update their hurricane kits.

As of the 5 AM advisory, Erika had winds of 40 MPH and a central pressure of 1003 MB. The storm is traveling west at 18 MPH.

TD Danny and 98L

August 24th, 2015

Danny has weakened to a tropical depression and may well dissipate within the next 72 hours. The storm is being sheared apart at higher altitudes. Even though the NHC is no longer publishing Danny’s exact position, the NHC is still providing a track of the storm. This track brings Danny south of Hispaniola by Wednesday, after which Danny will become a remnant low.

East of Danny, at 43 degrees west, is another storm, designated 98L. This storm has a very high probability of organizing, and might be declared as a tropical depression or storm sometime today. Its track is more worrisome than Danny’s, in that it’s forecast to curve towards the north just east of the U.S. coast. An average of the five models used show 98L passing us in about eight days at a distance of about 200 miles. If 98L is designated, it will be named Erika.

Did I say Claudette?

August 19th, 2015

I meant Danny … Tropical Storm Claudette menaced the east coast of the United States and Canada in mid-July. Sorry for the error.

Tropical Storm Danny, formerly Tropical Depression 4, is still traveling in a westward direction in the tropical Atlantic at about 12 MPH. As of the 11 AM advisory, Danny had winds of 50 MPH and a central pressure of 1000 MB. Even though TS Danny is looking pretty ragged on satellite, the storm has a good core structure and shows signs of continued strengthening.

The storm’s track and eventual strength depends upon whether a trough to its north. If the trough is strong enough, Danny will move more westward and lose strength. If not, Danny will start its curve. We’ll have to wait for a few days before the fate of Danny becomes clear.

Tropical Depression Four

August 18th, 2015

As of 11 AM, the NHC upgraded storm 96L to tropical depression status, with the new name of TD4. The storm has winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1009 MB. It is moving towards the west at 13 MPH, and is at least a week away from land. The current track has TD4 curving slightly towards the south on Friday, putting the storm on a course south of Cuba.

As to intensity, the storm is forecast to be upgraded to a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane by Friday. If TD4 does become a named storm, it will be named Claudette.

96L

August 18th, 2015

For the last several days, storm system 96L has been gaining strength and trying to organize. Today might be the day. Storm 96L currently has winds of 30 MPH and is about ten days from the Georgia coast, assuming its eventual track leads it here. According to the NHC the storm had a 90 percent chance of becoming tropical sometime today.

The tracks on this storm, provided by Weather Underground, have trended a bit towards the north since yesterday. It’s looking like this storm might be a coastal one, rather than a Gulf storm. Again, ten days away.

Pixels

August 9th, 2015

About an hour ago I began a thread of posts in the decidedly non-threaded Facebook environment. Here’s the issue: Columbia Pictures just released a film named Pixels.

Columbia Pictures and the MPAA have hired an anti-piracy company to help protect the investment of the film. But, apparently the anti-piracy efforts have been too aggressive, shutting down indy film makers who have similarly named content, but does not infringe in any way upon the film.

In response to this, I have created a short file named Pixels.wmv and have uploaded it to both YouTube and my HUD-1 Web Site.

This short indy film is not intended to compete with, infringe upon, or profit from, the Columbia Pictures production of the film Pixels.

95L Passed at 6:53 PM

August 4th, 2015

At 6:53 PM, the local NWS station, KSSI, reported a barometric pressure of 1010.6 MB. That was the lowest pressure reported yesterday, so I presume it was when the center of disturbance 95L was as close as it would be.

This will be my last post regarding 95L unless there are repercussions for Saint Simons from this storm. I don’t anticipate any, but you never can tell.

Radar of 95L

August 3rd, 2015

Over the last few hours, the tracks for 95L has been trending eastward. As of the 2 PM track, the exit point of the disturbance was coastal Glynn County. the estimated time was around 8 PM. The general movement of the storm system is at 5 MPH towards the northeast, but from tracking records, either the storm has stalled or the center keeps jumping around.

Since I can’t trust these tables and track maps, I’ve decided to trust my eyes. Here is a radar image of the area.

Long range NWS radar, JAX

As you can see the center appears to be southeast of Waycross. It might get lost again, or stall out again, but eventually it will reach the Atlantic coast.

Disturbance 95L

August 3rd, 2015

The disturbance over Florida has been given a designation of 95L. As of 8 AM, 95L was forecast to travel from the Big Bend area of Florida in a general northeasterly direction until it enters the Atlantic. The computer models are a bit confused about the timing, but not the course. There is good agreement that 95L will pass west and north of Glynn County sometime this afternoon or early evening. The models indicate that 95L has winds of 30 MPH, but I can’t find a central pressure.

As to how much threat it poses … I have no idea. The storm should bring us some rain, but I’d be ready for other threats, such as heavy winds and tornadoes. Our local weather is showing a 40 percent chance of rain this afternoon and evening. It has also been my experience that a feeling of oppressive, still air and high humidity is possible.