Two new areas

August 26th, 2014

There are two new areas of concern from the NHC’s outlook of yesterday.

One area is already in the Gulf of Mexico and heading along the Texas coast towards the Mexican coast. Although there is only a ten percent chance of development of this system over the next five days, it will still bring a lot of showers to communities along both coasts.

The second is 97L, which I noted yesterday. The track trend is starting to bend towards the north, just as Cristobal’s did. It’s eventual path, according to the NHC, does look like it will pass the Georgia coast. This is a storm for next week.

And a third area is about to exit the west coast of Africa. As of the five day outlook, there is a 40 percent chance of more development over the next five days. This storm is so far to the east that I don’t believe it to be any threat to the Georgia coast.

And then Hurricane Cristobal. No threat at all to the U.S. east coast. But the ensemble models provided by the Weather Underground web site show the storm passing over Iceland in a week. On satellite, Cristobal has spread out quite a bit, joining a weather pattern hundreds of miles from north northeast to south southwest. The SSE tail of Cristobal look long enough to pass over Britain a day later.

TS Cristobal And 97L

August 25th, 2014

TD 4 was upgraded to TS Cristobal yesterday and is now heading northward, far from coastal Georgia. The storm is now predicted to make its closest approach to us on Tuesday afternoon, more than 400 miles away. I expected Cristobal to be much closer, and I’m pleased that is not the case. As of the 5 AM advisory, Cristobal had winds of 60 MPH and a central pressure of 994 MB. The storm is expected to become a hurricane within 36 hours.

The NHC is now tracking a new storm system, 97L, and its tracks predict that it will head around Cuba and into the Gulf. Considering that Cristobal’s initial track showed much the same path, I’m waiting for reality to show the real track.

Tropical Depression Four

August 23rd, 2014

Storm 96L has become organized to be considered a tropical storm. As of the 5 PM advisory, TD 4 had winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1005 MB. The storm is quite ragged on satellite and is barely holding on to a TS status, but once past the Turk and Caicos Islands and in a better environment, it should gain organization and strength.

The intensity and track forecast is very uncertain at this point, so I’m very tentatively going to say that the closest approach of the storm will be as a category one hurricane about 400 miles off our coast by Thursday. That track will change. Some long term models show the storm passing between Iceland and Britain in about two weeks.

Cristobal Soon?

August 22nd, 2014

Storm 96L is gaining organization and now has an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm. As of the 8 AM discussion, the storm will be entering a region that is more conducive to strengthening over the next few days. If the storm gains a name, it will be Cristobal.

According to the forecast track, 96L will pass just north of the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola and then the Bahamas. After that, the storm is forecast to take a sharp northeast turn, taking it away from any land. Personally, I think the track will be far less sharp and that the Outer Banks will feel some effects from the storm.

96L had winds of 40 MPH and a central pressure of 1010 MB. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the storm from 1:15 PM and 5:30 PM.

Storm 96L

August 19th, 2014

A new day, a new storm. Storm 96L looks like it’s trying to organize … which will be the third storm in a row. It’s satellite shot shows more organization that I’ve seen from 93, 94 or 95L. The tracks show an equal chance of 96L going either north of Cuba or south. Those tracks will change.

This isn’t 95L, which hasn’t dissipated, but is just drifting along, but a new storm the NHC started tracking yesterday. I’m still waiting for a tropical storm to form out of one of these waves, and I’ll keep looking.

On the Other Hand, 95L

August 16th, 2014

A new storm, labeled 95L, has begun to organize in the far eastern Atlantic. So far, the tracks show 95L going just north of Hispaniola and Cuba in about a week. Of course, those tracks will change. As of this morning, 95L has winds of 30 MPH. According to the NHC, the storm is becoming a bit less organized, and has a 20 percent chance of further strengthening.

Will this storm be like 94L? That storm showed promise for a few days and then just petered out. Or will 95L become our next named storm?

94L May Be Next

August 10th, 2014

A growing disturbance, labeled 94L, is growing in the far eastern Atlantic ocean. As of the 8 AM Tropical Outlook, this storm system has winds of 25 MPH and the a 30 percent chance of further strengthening over the next five days. Initial tracks show the storm traveling south of Cuba in about a week and entering the Gulf.

And I’d also like to point out that we have 30 days until season peak – September 9th.

Three Formations

August 4th, 2014

Three weather formations are sliding past one another over coastal Georgia and the result is confused winds and a lot of rain.

1 – A trough running from northeast to southwest, to the northwest of us;
2 – A cyclonic weather pattern south of us and;\
3 – The newly upgraded Hurricane Bertha, still six hours away from its closest approach.

Enjoy what daylight you can grab today.

TS Bertha and a new disturbance

August 3rd, 2014

A new disturbance has begun to organize between Florida and the Bahamas. It does not yet have a name. This is a northward moving storm system that will influence our weather through at least Monday. The storm will bring us rain, which will diminish over the next few days, and winds up to 14 MPH. The disturbance has a zero percent chance of organizing at this time, but I saw that with Hurricane Arthur.

Bertha is now brushing past the Turks and Caicos Islands and is gradually beginning its turn towards the north. As of the 5 AM advisory, Bertha had winds of 45 MPH and a central pressure of 1012 MB. If the forecast track is correct, Bertha will make its closest approach to Glynn County at around 8 PM Monday evening. The storm should have little influence on our weather as it passes. After that, Bertha is predicted to gradually gain strength, briefly become a hurricane, turn towards the north-northeast and become a subtropical storm in five days.

In terms of overall influence, the new disturbance will have significantly more impact than Bertha. Be mindful that there is now two storms!

TS Bertha

August 1st, 2014

I had hoped that storm 93L was beginning to dissipate but I was incorrect … it hung on and finally, last night, began to really get organized. As of the 2 AM tropical outlook, the storm has been upgraded by the NHC as a tropical storm. It has been named TS Bertha.

According to the 5 AM advisory, Bertha had winds of 45 MPH and a central pressure of 1008 MB. The storm was traveling towards the west northwest at 20 MPH, which is a bit fast. The forward speed has been much higher than in larger storms and has brought Bertha almost to the Windward Islands. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and several other places.

As for the future, the tracks provided by Weather Underground predict that the center of the storm will avoid land and turn first towards the north then towards the northeast, taking it between the U.S. coast and Bermuda in five or six days. The storm’s closest approach to the Georgia coast would be around 4 AM next Tuesday. Those tracks will change, but I don’t think they will change very much.