Hurricane Screamer

The storm 91L has been traveling south at about five miles per hour for the last several days, but that journey is about at an end. Sometime this evening, the storm will reverse direction and turn towards us. The storm will pass us sometime on Wednesday. That fact is now being reflected in our local forecast. The chances of rain on Wednesday start at around 30 percent and slowly increase to 60 percent. Wind will be between 10 and 14 MPH. Rainfall amounts are unknown. I’d also watch for rip currents. It will take about 48 hours for the storm to clear our coast, by which time it will be raining on Myrtle Beach, SC.

As of the 2 PM outlook, 91L has an 80 percent chance of further strengthening and winds of 35 MPH. It might be declared a tropical depression by the time its center gets here.

The Hurricane Hunters will investigate the storm system I noted yesterday, now being referred to as Invest 91L. The flight will leave at around 1:45 PM and be on station fifteen minutes later. We should know something by around 3 PM.

91L has a large surface area, influencing weather from the NC/SC border to Palm Beach, FL. There’s still very little information regarding 91L’s pressure. The winds have been measured at 25 MPH. 91L is now centered 230 miles off the coast of Jacksonville, and is slowly drifting southward. The models are coming into agreement regarding the path of the storm; basically the center of the storm will continue to drift southwards for a few days, make a gentle westward turn and then head north along the coast, arriving right next to Jacksonville Thursday and Saint Simons on Friday. Of course, that path could change. The NHC is now giving the storm a 40 percent chance of further organization in the next 48 hours and a 70 percent chance over the next five days.

At the moment, our local forecast does not reflect the reality of the storm. There is still a 20-30 percent chance of rain for the next three days. I suppose if 91L is upgraded to TD-1, our forecast will change. We might be in for a lot of rain, and rip tides will be a danger to swimmers. Be cautious.

A sub-tropical low has formed off the South Carolina coast. Strangely, this low formed first over the land area of South Carolina and has moved eastward for the last 48 hours. This is not typical of tropical behavior. There is not much information available on the NHC’s web site, but it is mentioned that there is a 30 percent chance of further development over the next 48 hours. Neither the winds nor the pressure are mentioned.

Looking at the model runs on the Weather Underground site, it’s clear that the actual path of the storm might be a big surprise. Two of the models has the storm moving southwest towards coastal Georgia and Florida, looping over Georgia and heading northeast back over South and then North Carolina. Another two models shows the storm moving first southeast then northeast, All over the Atlantic.

Our local weather could be affected by this storm. I don’t believe that we will have particularly high winds, but we might get a lot of rain on Monday. We must all be watchful over the next few days, as reality plays out.

I can’t remember a time when a Pacific storm crossed over Mexico and entered the Gulf, becoming an Atlantic storm. But that might just happen in a few days. As of the 11 AM advisory, TD Boris (Pacific) is heading due north and is over the Mexican coast. At 5 PM this evening, the storm is forecast to dissipate and will be about halfway between the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico.

I’m concerned that enough of Boris might survive long enough to reach the Gulf and re-organize. In fact, the Atlantic Outlook plainly states that there is a ten percent chance of the storms preceding Boris to organize. If that happens, the eastern coast of Mexico and the Texas coast might be at risk. As the days pass, things will become more clear.

A question … if this does happen, a Pacific storm becoming an Atlantic storm, what is the naming convention? Does the name stay the same or is it assigned a new name? We might see in a few days.

Today is the official start of the 2014 hurricane season. Even though the University of Colorado is predicting a less-than-active season, storms will still occur.

In fact, as of this morning, a large area of storms that extends from the Gulf of Mexico, across Southern Mexico and into the eastern Pacific will hold my interest for at least the next week. This storm system has already spawned one hurricane in the Pacific. On the Pacific side, the NHC is forecasting a 90 percent chance that the storm system will organize. On the Gulf side, they are posting a 20 percent chance of tropical weather over the next five days. I expect those chances to increase dramatically.

As of the 11 AM tropical weather discussion, there were three tropical waves in the Atlantic or Caribbean. Other than those, there are no threats.