Archive for September, 2016

Passage Of TS Julia at 5 AM

Wednesday, September 14th, 2016

The last thing I ever expected is that Invest 93L would organize over land into a tropical storm. But, that’s what happened last night. Starting at 11 PM last night, the NHC began issuing advisories to TS Julia, just as the storm was passing Saint Mary’s, Georgia. The storm was and still is, moving very slowly to the north.

The center of TS Julia passed Saint Simons at around 5 AM this morning, as signified by the low pressure of 1011 MB. All of Julia’s rain activity seems to be in the northeast quadrant of Julia, and radar shows that has passed north of us. The clouds in general are in the eastern half of the storm, so those will be with us for a while.

As far as total rainfall, the weather station at McKinnon Airport (KSSI) is reporting a total of 6.47 inches since yesterday morning at 9 AM. Top winds were recorded at around 2 AM, with a speed of 28 MPH and gusts of 38 MPH. More often than not, after 2 AM winds have been measured above 20 MPH.

Landfall of Hurricane Hermione Soon

Thursday, September 1st, 2016

As of the 11 PM advisory, Hurricane Hermione had winds of 80 MPH and a central pressure of 983 MB. The storm continues to move towards the NNE at 14 mph. The center of Hermione is expected to make landfall in a few hours.

Hermione’s closest approach to coastal Glynn is estimated at around 65 miles to the west in a little less than twelve hours. We are already under a large rain band that will rotate out in about six hours, but by then the central part of the storm should be close enough for us to be under another band. In other words, we might be under continuous rain clouds for the next eighteen hours.

Keeping in mind that the NWS forecast almost always over-estimates threats, the coming hours will bring us high winds, steady medium and heavy rainfall, and possible tornadoes. The key word in my previous statement is “almost.” It could turn out as bad as predicted but it’s hard to know for sure. Still, it’s wise to be prepared without being alarmist.

Starting at around 3 AM our winds will begin to rise from their current 18 MPH to a peak of around 50 MPH with 67 MPH gusts at around 7 AM. The winds are forecast to stay peaked until 11 AM when they will gradually fall back to the 15-20 MPH range by 4 PM. Rainfall will be in the order of 3-1/2 to 4-1/2 inches by nightfall. Tropical storm Dolly dumped almost six inches of rain on us four years ago, so Hermione’s rain will not be outside our experience.

At the moment, there is a tornado watch until 8 AM and a flood watch through tomorrow evening.

What I’ll be watching for more than anything else is the barometric pressure. It’s falling very slowly as the storm approaches, and when it starts rising again, I’ll know that the center has passed. There will still be high winds and a lot of rain to fall after that, but at least I’ll know the storm will end.

Update: a very useful feature from Georgia Power called “the Outage Map” shows that 433 people are without power on the Island.