Hurricane Screamer

The track for Matthew has again moved west. Coastal Glynn County is now at the very edge of the hurricane-force wind field. Our NWS forecast now predicts that we will receive sustained winds of 55 MPH with gusts up to 75 mph. The winds are predicted to peak from about 9 PM Friday and last until 4 AM Saturday. There is currently a flood watch from now until Saturday, and a hurricane warning in effect for an unknown time.

In the overall weather picture, our winds, now 13 MPH, will begin to increase after noon tomorrow, peaking at the above speeds and times mentioned above. Then, as the storm passes, the wind will gradually wind down to about 20 MPH at 2 PM Saturday afternoon. The rain amount forecast hasn’t really changed, except that there is, unsurprisingly, a 100 percent chance of rain for a longer period.

The voluntary evacuation orders issued by Glynn County are still in effect. So far, no mandatory orders have been issued.

Having written all that, I’d like to point out that we are seeing a unique meteorological event. There is a second tropical weather pattern in the Atlantic named Tropical Storm Nicole (60 MPH winds). Matthew and Nicole are both influencing each others tracks in a big way. Because of this interaction, Matthew is now predicted to make a loop of around 1000 miles, and hit us again next week, as early as Monday. Everybody I talk with or read is expressing the same thing – variations on “Wow,” “Um,” “OMG,” “WTF.” And so on. I’ve seen storms loop from time to time, and I’ve even seen, as late as last year’s season, storms merge, but I’ve never seen anything like this before.

Remember that all these are predictions. And predictions change.

I’ve just become aware that Glynn County has a page on their web site devoted to severe weather, tropical storm and hurricane announcements. Here it is:

Severe Weather /TS/ Hurricane Updates

The announcements are issued both on the web page as PDF files and are sent out by e-mail. Here is an excerpt from the current announcement regarding the voluntary evacuation:

Glynn County Board of Commissioners has called for a voluntary evacuation for the islands (St. Simons, Jekyll Island, Sea Island, and Little St. Simons Island), low lying areas, and mobile homes that is effective immediately. At this time, an evacuation of the mainland is not anticipated. There are no plans to close {the] FJ Torras causeway at any time during the storm unless it is physically impossible to cross the causeway due to water. However, should conditions warrant a closure, emergency services will no longer be available to island residents and evacuation will not be possible.

h/t Jacinda Creech

I’ve just become aware of an error in local media claiming that tropical storm force winds will start for the Golden Isles as early as tomorrow. I’m not saying it won’t happen, but it’s extremely unlikely to happen. Hurricane Matthew hasn’t even passed Cuba yet, and it outlying cloud cover is only now due east of southern Florida. In addition to that, our own forecast from the NWS is that winds will cross the 35 MPH threshold after 6 PM Friday night. I simply don’t see how it is possible for us to have tropical storm force winds that early.

On the other hand, the headline and story could be referring to the eastern coast of Florida south of Melbourne. Melbourne is forecast to have winds of 36 MPH at 10 PM Thursday night.

It is my pleasure to announce that the predicted track for Hurricane Matthew has moved back towards the east. It is almost as far east as it was yesterday at 5 AM. As of today’s 5 AM forecast, the storm’s center will make its closest approach between 2 AM and 5 AM Saturday morning at a distance between 60 and 80 miles.

As time moves forward, our weather forecast is beginning to anticipate the actual weather we will experience. From now until 5 PM Friday, our winds will be around 20 MPH with gusts to 30. At 5 PM Friday, the winds will gradually increase until 2 AM Saturday (passage) when they will peak at 45 to 50 MPH with gusts to near 70 MPH. Rainfall amounts are hard to predict, but anticipate 8 inches or more. That’s in addition to the foot of rain we’ve already had from Hermione and Julia.

The six-hour rain forecasts break down like this, from 8 PM Thursday to 2 PM Saturday.
8 PM – 0.18 inches
2 AM – 0.25 inches (Friday)
8 AM – 0.80 inches
2 PM – 2.07 inches
8 PM – 2.60 inches
2 AM – 1.70 inches (Saturday)
8 AM – 0.19 inches
And it falls off after that.

The track of Matthew is looking kind of strange. The NHC is now predicting that Matthew will make a sharp turn towards the northeast then east within a few hours after passing Glynn County. It will miss Savannah, Georgia by over 150 miles. The end of the track looks like it might begin a loop. I’m less than convinced that the front that passing us now will steer the storm away from the coast by that much. Getting the current NHC update on Matthew is doubly important, because the track could change back towards the west just as radically as it did from last night to this morning.