TS Erika and the Georgia Coast

The endpoint of the NHC storm track for TS Erika keeps trending east and west plus or minus 100 miles. As of the 11 AM advisory and the current track, it appears that Erika will pass the coast of Glynn County on Wednesday afternoon by a very comfortable margin of about 150 miles. As of the 11 AM advisory, Erika had winds of 50 MPH and a central pressure of 1006 MB.

I’ve seen some discussion on social media of whether we should evacuate. At this point, I don’t think so. The angle of the track over the next 48 hours is important and so is the geography of Florida and the Georgia Cut. The storm would have to begin its northern turn on Saturday and maintain a straight line of approach for five days or more to reach us directly. That’s highly unlikely. Looking at the endpoint is important, too. If the endpoint moves west and ends up over Florida, by the time Erika reaches us, it will be a tropical storm. If the track jogs east, it will mess us even further.

As always, the key is to wait and be watchful. Mostly, we have to watch that angle of NW travel and the trend, east or west, of the endpoint over multiple tracks.

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