Five AM Update on Hurricane Matthew – it might loop?

It is my pleasure to announce that the predicted track for Hurricane Matthew has moved back towards the east. It is almost as far east as it was yesterday at 5 AM. As of today’s 5 AM forecast, the storm’s center will make its closest approach between 2 AM and 5 AM Saturday morning at a distance between 60 and 80 miles.

As time moves forward, our weather forecast is beginning to anticipate the actual weather we will experience. From now until 5 PM Friday, our winds will be around 20 MPH with gusts to 30. At 5 PM Friday, the winds will gradually increase until 2 AM Saturday (passage) when they will peak at 45 to 50 MPH with gusts to near 70 MPH. Rainfall amounts are hard to predict, but anticipate 8 inches or more. That’s in addition to the foot of rain we’ve already had from Hermione and Julia.

The six-hour rain forecasts break down like this, from 8 PM Thursday to 2 PM Saturday.
8 PM – 0.18 inches
2 AM – 0.25 inches (Friday)
8 AM – 0.80 inches
2 PM – 2.07 inches
8 PM – 2.60 inches
2 AM – 1.70 inches (Saturday)
8 AM – 0.19 inches
And it falls off after that.

The track of Matthew is looking kind of strange. The NHC is now predicting that Matthew will make a sharp turn towards the northeast then east within a few hours after passing Glynn County. It will miss Savannah, Georgia by over 150 miles. The end of the track looks like it might begin a loop. I’m less than convinced that the front that passing us now will steer the storm away from the coast by that much. Getting the current NHC update on Matthew is doubly important, because the track could change back towards the west just as radically as it did from last night to this morning.

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