Forecast changes again
Hurricane Ida has surprised me again. Not only has the storm increased in strength to a category two hurricane, but the forecast track has changed to place Glynn County much more near the center.
As of the 10 PM advisory, Ida had winds of 105 MPH and a central pressure of 979 MB. News reports of winds reaching 125 MPH with higher gusts are in error. Who knows, though. The 11 PM advisory might reflect that. The storm is heading towards the north-northwest at 14 MPH.
I’d like to point out that any impact on Glynn County from Ida is forecast from the very end of the track map, which is notorious for its wildly changing position and direction. All indications are, at this moment, that Glynn County will see some effects from Ida starting Tuesday morning.
But will we? I just can’t tell. The far end of the track map is changing too much. So any discussions about possible effects are contingent on the fact that the track map may change quite radically in just a few hours. I always write from that perspective anyway, as I have mentioned in the past, but it deserves special mention. This is because the situation is so changeable, yet has such good corroborating data (from the NWS) to support it, it’s hard to know what to write.
That said, the current track map now has Ida passing 70 miles south of us by 6 PM Wednesday as a subtropical depression. If that happens, we will see winds of up to 18 MPH (with 27 MPH gusts) tomorrow, and a 50 percent chance of rain tomorrow night. Our weather forecast then shows a 70 percent chance of rain through Wednesday, rip tides, and all the usual effects from tropical weather.
I’ll have more tomorrow on this.