Hurricane Screamer

As of the 5 PM advisory, the NHC has declared the coast from the Altamaha River in Georgia to Flagler Beach, Florida to be under a tropical storm watch. This is an open-ended watch, presumably ending Tuesday night.

As of the 5 PM advisory, TD3 had winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1005 MB. The landfall and exit have been moved a few hours, but the exit point is still at Glynn County at around 1 AM Tuesday night. The winds are forecast to be 40 MPH with gusts to 56 MPH.

As of 11 AM, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 93L to Tropical Depression Three. It won’t be too long before TD3 is upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin.

As of the 11 AM advisory, TD3 had winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1005 MB. According to the current forecast track, the storm will achieve landfall at 7 PM at Perry, Florida. From there the storm is predicted to continue northeast over land until 3 AM Tuesday morning. TD3 will then re-enter the ocean at Glynn County.

Our weather forecast reflects this. We are forecast to get more than two inches of rain from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM Tuesday. From 8 PM Monday to 2 AM Tuesday, we are forecast to get more then eight tenths of an inch.

This is not connected to the storm we’re getting today. That storm started off in Texas a few days ago and has been slowly moving towards the east.

Invest 93L is showing increasing signs of organizing into a tropical depression. Although there is no circulation on time lapse or a central low, wind speeds have increased to 35 MPH and the amount of rain clouds and moisture in the region has vastly increased. The NHC has increased the chances of the storm organizing to 70 percent over the next 48 hours. There is a hurricane hunter flight scheduled for tomorrow.

The tracks haven’t changed very much since yesterday – 93L is now predicted to have a landfall just north of Tampa, Florida and move back over the ocean at around Jacksonville in three days.

Either way. we’re likely to get a lot of rain and strange winds, as well as rip tides. The forecast from the NWS is now showing an 80 percent chance of rain on Monday, with more than an inch falling. Of course, we have chances of rain tomorrow, but it looks more normal. Basically, some popups and an afternoon downpour. That’s coming from a storm over Alabama. But none from 93L until 7 AM Monday morning.

Normally, I wouldn’t post about an invest storm. However, Invest 93L’s track has been analyzed and it appears that the storm will be passing over northern Florida or southern Georgia in three to four days. 93L might organize enough to be considered a tropical depression by that time.

At the moment, 93L is a series of storms just off the coast from the Yucatan. The storms have no central low, but that is expected to appear in a few days.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm will first travel towards the northwest, then turn towards the northeast, heading for the Florida coast and eventually hitting the ocean south of Saint Augustine.

The tracks on Weather Underground show a sharp turn in three days towards the east, with the center of the different models first passing over Panama City, Florida, then northern Florida, Southeast Georgia, the returning to the ocean a bit south of Glynn County.

As of the 2 PM model run, the storm had winds of 30 MPH, a 20 percent chance of organizing in two days and 60 percent in five days.

I had expected this storm to be Tropical Depression 01 and its name to be Alex, and was surprised when it went right to TD02 and Bonnie.

The confusion comes from the fact that TD01/Alex was a late/early tropical storm system in January.

This is the page from the NHC regarding TD01/Alex.

Now back to TS Bonnie, which seems to stalled out over Charleston, SC. The storm may be ready to make a sharp northern turn.

After a WordPress crash during the latest update, I’ve had to apply the changes manually. And then! The plug-ins I use to Twitter and Facebook crashed, so I had to update those manually.

Now back to my regular activities – tropical weather!

For the last several days, a weak storm system, labeled 91L, has been churning off the Southeast U.S. coast. It has grown in strength for the last two days, and because of the investigation by the Hurricane Hunters, has now been upgraded to tropical depression status.

As of the 5 PM advisory, TD 2 was about 400 miles from Charleston, SC and is heading for a landfall near that city at around 2 PM Sunday. The storm is forecast to have winds of 40 MPH at the time of landfall and is expected to be a sub-tropical storm. I’m not sure if it will be given a name, but if so, it will be named Alex. Currently the storm has winds of 35 MPH with a central pressure of 1009 MB.

It’s a fairly broad, diffuse storm, so I expect us to get some its rain, winds and rip tides.

The Hurricane Screamer web site has been updated and I’m ready for the 2016 season. The next thing that will happen is that the University of Colorado will be releasing their forecast for the season.

Addition: The Facebook plugin has expired … I’ll try to repost.

The next storm to pass out of the Gulf and over Florida and Georgia has formed. The storm has no official designation, but it might be given an Invest number later this morning.

As of the 2 AM Outlook, the storm is a 1013 MB low southwest of the Florida Bay coast that is embedded in a front extending from the Yucatan to the Outer Banks. According to the NHC, the storm has a ten percent chance of organizing over the next 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance over the next five days. This low is expected to drift northeast over the next 48 hours and finally emerge over the western Atlantic over the weekend. I should point out that the NHC’s expected course of northeast takes the storm’s center over coastal Georgia.

Expect a lot of rain over the next 48 hours, along with steady winds and high humidity.

The endpoint of the NHC storm track for TS Erika keeps trending east and west plus or minus 100 miles. As of the 11 AM advisory and the current track, it appears that Erika will pass the coast of Glynn County on Wednesday afternoon by a very comfortable margin of about 150 miles. As of the 11 AM advisory, Erika had winds of 50 MPH and a central pressure of 1006 MB.

I’ve seen some discussion on social media of whether we should evacuate. At this point, I don’t think so. The angle of the track over the next 48 hours is important and so is the geography of Florida and the Georgia Cut. The storm would have to begin its northern turn on Saturday and maintain a straight line of approach for five days or more to reach us directly. That’s highly unlikely. Looking at the endpoint is important, too. If the endpoint moves west and ends up over Florida, by the time Erika reaches us, it will be a tropical storm. If the track jogs east, it will mess us even further.

As always, the key is to wait and be watchful. Mostly, we have to watch that angle of NW travel and the trend, east or west, of the endpoint over multiple tracks.

Over the last 48 hours, the track of Tropical Storm Erika has trended towards the west. As of this morning’s 5AM track, Erika is forecast to brush the southeast Florida coast sometime Monday morning and pass Glynn County at around 8 AM next Tuesday as a minimal hurricane.

Mr. Brennen, the forecaster this morning, is very quick to point out that the error at the end of five days is plus or minus 240 miles. That means that the five day forecast is far from certain. I concur … in fact, I’ve been pointing that out on this blog for many years. With all that said, now would be a good time for residents of the Florida and Georgia coast to review their evacuation plans and update their hurricane kits.

As of the 5 AM advisory, Erika had winds of 40 MPH and a central pressure of 1003 MB. The storm is traveling west at 18 MPH.