Hurricane Screamer

And to think that a week ago I was writing on how boring I hoped the hurricane season would be. This is not boring. Danielle has surprised me by becoming a category four hurricane. Earl is still forecast to make a northward turn on Sunday. And there’s a new spot on the ocean, in almost the same position as Earl four days ago, that wants to organize.

Hurricane Danielle now has winds of 135 MPH and a central pressure of 946 MB. Danielle is now the strongest recorded storm for the season. The forecast calls for Danielle to make a turn to the northeast then east and head straight to Europe in a week. The ultimate destination seems to be Portugal, and I’ve never heard of a hurricane hitting there, ever.

Tropical Storm Earl is still forecast to begin a northern turn towards Bermuda on Sunday. Even though the forecast has stayed consistent, I’m still calling for an alert until Sunday morning. You just can’t be too careful. Currently, Earl has winds of 45 MPH and a central pressure of 1003 MB. The storm is heading west at 17 MPH.

And another spot has appeared on the ocean – in just about the place Danielle and Earl got their starts. This spot, referred to as Invest-97, has a 60% chance of further organization. The tracking on this storm shows that it will follow the tracks of Danielle and Earl – basically heading east for a while and then curving towards the north.

Perhaps this storm will continue the westward trend. Danielle was east of Bermuda, Earl might go right over the island nation, and this storm will be a few hundred miles to the west. We shall have to see. If the storm does organize, it will be named Fiona.

The NHC has begun to issue advisories for the area of storms I noted yesterday. There is another broad area of storms in the northeast Gulf Of Mexico that is traveling towards the west. Finally, Hurricane Danielle is on its way to pass east of Bermuda in a few days.

Tropical Depression Seven has just been declared, but the NHC has noted the area since yesterday. As I looked at the track for the storm (then called Invest-96), I saw a troublesome lack of a curve northward in a westward moving storm. The curve appeared for the first time this morning – at the far end of the track. This is worrisome to me in that tracks that far out (more than five days) can and do change radically before the storm moves over its actual track.

I’m calling an alert on this storm for at least the next three days. By then, the storm will either be on its way north, passing west of Bermuda, or due west, towards the Florida Straits and Cuba. As of right now, it poses an unknown level of threat to Glynn County.

As of the 11 AM advisory, TD Seven was located at 14.3 north, 30.8 west. This position is 2,958 miles from Glynn County, and assuming a direct path at its current 17 MPH, is about 174 hours away. This is more than a week. The storm has winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1007 MB.

The storm is currently expected to intensify to a category one hurricane in three days, and reach a maximum intensity of 100 MPH winds by day five. The forward motion is expected to slow a bit. The NHC is fairly confident that the weather patterns left in the wake of Hurricane Danielle will steer TD7 towards the northwest by day seven.

I’m watching this storm very closely.

Danielle is still forecast to pass east of Bermuda sometime on Sunday. Danielle weakened to a tropical storm earlier, and is now back to hurricane status.

A large area south of the Texas and Louisiana coastlines (and east of Mexico) is showing very faint signs it wants to organize, but the NHC is giving it only ten percent. Since the movement of the storm is towards the west, it’s not a threat for us in Glynn County. However, northern Mexico might have a problem in a few days.

I cannot remember the last time there were two tropical weather patterns in the Atlantic, much less one being a hurricane. But here it is: Hurricane Danielle has reached category two status, and a new strong tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands is about to be declared.

The farther storm is what I’m watching most closely this morning. I’ve seen a track on this storm, and it’s a bit odd. The forecast track has the storm heading WNW for the next week, in a straight line. Usually, there will be some curve in a track after a few days, but it’s missing here.

Regardless of the strange track, I expect the NHC to begin issuing advisories later today. There will be a discussion attached, perhaps I’ll learn what this storm is all about from that. At this point, I don’t believe the storm is a threat, but I’ll be watching its progress very closely. If the storm does organize, it will be named Earl.

Hurricane Danielle now has winds of 100 MPH and a central pressure of 973 MB. The forecast from the NHC shows Danielle becoming a category three storm tomorrow. As for the track, the storm is no menace to the coast at this time. The 5 AM forecast shows that Danielle will pass more than 300 miles to the east of Bermuda Sunday morning.

My apologies about not posting over the last few days. I have been extremely busy with a personal task. Back to both work and blogging!

For the past few days, I have seen others write about a tropical wave leaving the African Coast that would develop into a tropical storm or hurricane. That tropical wave is in the ocean now, and it really wants to organize.

The storm is a tropical wave, broadly located at 12 north, 26 west, with a 1008 MB low. That’s thousands of miles from the Georgia Coast. A very preliminary track of this storm shows that it will pass far to the east of Bermuda in a week or ten days. If the storm becomes a tropical storm it would be named Danielle.

It is clear from what I see being written that the NHC and others expect this storm to become a hurricane by Monday. I don’t think it’s a threat, but I’ll be keeping close track of the progress of the storm.

There is a distinct possibility that the remnants of Tropical Depression Five will re-enter the ocean tomorrow morning and regenerate into an organized storm.

TD5 has been an ordinary, open-ended storm since it moved onto land last week. It’s so wide that, while the western end is over the Panhandle of Florida and the borders of Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas and Louisiana, its eastern end has brought days of humidity and storms to Glynn County. It has not dissipated like I thought it would, it’s just hung on like crazy.

The NHC writes that there is a 50% chance that when the storm moves back over water that it will regenerate. After that, it is forecast to move in a southwest direction, which is in the opposite direction to Glynn. I suppose that after that, it will loop back and hit the coast again in a few days somewhere in Texas or northern Mexico.

We shall have to wait and see.

Well, that’s a change. Over the last few days, the season has cooled down quite a bit. The remnants of TD5 is only a small spot over New Orleans and there are three tropical waves, none of which appear to be ready to organize.

Of course, things can change overnight, so don’t let down your guard. As a reminder, there is less than a month before the season maximum on September 9th.

Tropical Depression Five might dump quite a lot of rain on New Orleans and points north this weekend. TD5’s track has been very consistent for the last few days, even before it was declared a TD. The latest track shows that TD5 will be over New Orleans by 7 AM tomorrow morning and take a sharp northeast turn towards Mississippi and NW Alabama by Friday.

The thing is, well, the storm slows to a crawl making that turn. The question I have is how much more rain will the storm drop on that area before it picks up speed? The NWS is forecasting over three inches of rain for New Orleans, about 1.5 inches for Hattiesburg, MS and about an inch for Jackson, MS. We shall see about all that.

I have no clear idea how much TD5 will influence our weather. I expect some rain and strange winds, but how much, I’m not sure. Probably not very much. It all depends on how large TD5 is when it makes its closest approach. With the current track, that looks like it will be at 5 PM Sunday. The GOES Satellite image shows that the cloud cover of the storm as it is right now will just barely reach us.

Currently, TD5 is heading for New Orleans at around 6 MPH. The radar already show outer rain bands just off the coast. The storm has winds of 30 MPH and a central pressure of 1008 MB, up two from last night.

I’m keeping a close eye on this storm, but I don’t think that we will be in much danger. Of course, a storm can change quite a bit and so can its track, so it pays to never take anything for granted.

[Update 5:30 PM]
Apparently, TD5 has dissipated so much that the NHC has discontinued its advisories. I’ll continue to track the storm on satellite.

The NHC has been issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five since 7:30 PM ET. The track for this storm is towards New Orleans, a bit inland, and then to make a sharp northeast turn and head towards Northern Arkansas as a tropical depression.

Glynn County may well catch a part of the storm, at least rain and wind. I’ll have much more on this tomorrow morning.

The NHC has issued the last advisory on TS Colin, and I have begun to track two new areas that might develop. One of them is right off the coast of Florida, and is forecast to move towards the SSE. The other is in the Atlantic and bears more watching.

The Florida storm is interesting in that I believe it to be part of the same storm that blew through Glynn County on Friday and Saturday. Once the far end of the storm system hit the water, it began to develop. The NHC indicates that there is only a 10 percent chance of the storm organizing into anything tropical, but the tracks on it show that the Gulf coast may get a lot of rain over the next few days, even without tropical weather. I don’t think it’s a threat to Glynn County, but as it is so close, I’m watching it carefully.

The other storm is showing increasing signs it wants to organize, but the tracks on that storm has it floating around the mid-Atlantic for a week or more. I can’t tell what it’s ultimate fate would be, so I can’t really tell if it’s a longer term threat.

So, we have a storm to watch this week, and one for next week. Let’s hope they both stay away.

The NHC has begun issuing advisories on the newly declared tropical depression four, the season’s first Atlantic storm. TD 4 is currently forecast to parallel the east coast and miss Georgia by at least 500 miles. That miss will occur in five or six days.

As of the 11 AM advisory, TD 4 had winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1006 MB. TD 4 is moving in a WNW direction at 17 MPH and is forecast to make a gradual turn towards the north. There are no watches or warnings associated with this storm. The maximum winds are expected to peak at around 60 MPH and then fall.

Remember, though, forecasts can and do change from day to day. The track is likely to change again. Let’s hope it does not and that TD 4 is a nice, boring safe storm.