Tropical Storm Colin made its closest passage to Coastal Georgia at around 4 AM, as evidenced by a low pressure of 1003.1 millibars. The wind peaked at midnight at 15 MPH. The total rainfall was just shy of three inches. Overall, not a bad result of the passage of a tropical storm.
TS Colin is a diminishing threat to the coast. By this time tomorrow, the storm will be well out at sea.
Coastal Glynn County has been placed under an open ended tropical storm warning. The rain will continue to worsen until 1 AM as the center passes, then gradually lighten until tomorrow evening. A total of more than two inches is expected. The wind is forecast to stay steady until around 10 PM when it will climb to 40 MPH with 55 MPH gusts. The winds will gradually die down to about 10 MPH after that. There is also a flood watch until 7 AM tomorrow.
As of the 5 AM advisory TS Colin had winds of 50 MPH and a central pressure of 1005 MB. The storm is moving towards the north-northeast at 14 MPH. Landfall is forecast at around 8 PM tonight and the center is now predicted to re-emerge over the ocean just north of Jacksonville, Florida.
As of the 5 PM advisory, the NHC has declared the coast from the Altamaha River in Georgia to Flagler Beach, Florida to be under a tropical storm watch. This is an open-ended watch, presumably ending Tuesday night.
As of the 5 PM advisory, TD3 had winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1005 MB. The landfall and exit have been moved a few hours, but the exit point is still at Glynn County at around 1 AM Tuesday night. The winds are forecast to be 40 MPH with gusts to 56 MPH.
As of 11 AM, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 93L to Tropical Depression Three. It won’t be too long before TD3 is upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin.
As of the 11 AM advisory, TD3 had winds of 35 MPH and a central pressure of 1005 MB. According to the current forecast track, the storm will achieve landfall at 7 PM at Perry, Florida. From there the storm is predicted to continue northeast over land until 3 AM Tuesday morning. TD3 will then re-enter the ocean at Glynn County.
Our weather forecast reflects this. We are forecast to get more than two inches of rain from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM Tuesday. From 8 PM Monday to 2 AM Tuesday, we are forecast to get more then eight tenths of an inch.
This is not connected to the storm we’re getting today. That storm started off in Texas a few days ago and has been slowly moving towards the east.
Invest 93L is showing increasing signs of organizing into a tropical depression. Although there is no circulation on time lapse or a central low, wind speeds have increased to 35 MPH and the amount of rain clouds and moisture in the region has vastly increased. The NHC has increased the chances of the storm organizing to 70 percent over the next 48 hours. There is a hurricane hunter flight scheduled for tomorrow.
The tracks haven’t changed very much since yesterday – 93L is now predicted to have a landfall just north of Tampa, Florida and move back over the ocean at around Jacksonville in three days.
Either way. we’re likely to get a lot of rain and strange winds, as well as rip tides. The forecast from the NWS is now showing an 80 percent chance of rain on Monday, with more than an inch falling. Of course, we have chances of rain tomorrow, but it looks more normal. Basically, some popups and an afternoon downpour. That’s coming from a storm over Alabama. But none from 93L until 7 AM Monday morning.
Normally, I wouldn’t post about an invest storm. However, Invest 93L’s track has been analyzed and it appears that the storm will be passing over northern Florida or southern Georgia in three to four days. 93L might organize enough to be considered a tropical depression by that time.
At the moment, 93L is a series of storms just off the coast from the Yucatan. The storms have no central low, but that is expected to appear in a few days.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm will first travel towards the northwest, then turn towards the northeast, heading for the Florida coast and eventually hitting the ocean south of Saint Augustine.
The tracks on Weather Underground show a sharp turn in three days towards the east, with the center of the different models first passing over Panama City, Florida, then northern Florida, Southeast Georgia, the returning to the ocean a bit south of Glynn County.
As of the 2 PM model run, the storm had winds of 30 MPH, a 20 percent chance of organizing in two days and 60 percent in five days.