Hurricane Screamer

A little earlier than I expected, Tropical Storm Igor has formed in the Atlantic. It’s so far away, I’m not in any way certain of any threat to the Georgia Coast. However, the tail-end of the five day track shows that Igor will be trending north.

If that trend continues, it will eventually point to us. Since the storm is at least ten days away, I’m not calling an alert yet. But I will be tracking the storm from day to day until I am sure that we are in the crosshairs.

The African tropical wave that I noted a few days ago has begun to organize in the far eastern Atlantic, and the remnants of Tropical Depression Hermine is dumping huge amounts of rain on Texas.

The tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands is beginning to very quickly organize – the NHC has bumped the chances from 10 percent yesterday to 70 percent this morning. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it formed into a tropical depression once high upper-level winds subside.

The general track of the storm shows that it will follow in the footsteps of Gaston, moving towards Cuba, and then on into the Gulf. If it organizes into a Tropical Storm, it will be named Igor. Currently, it is labeled Invest-91.

And speaking of Gaston, the storm still exists as a tropical wave. At the moment, TW Gaston is located southeast of the Dominican Republic, and is heading west towards the Gulf.

The remnants of TD Hermine is dumping a goodly bit of rain on the Dallas area this morning. So far in the last six hours, the storm has put more than three inches on the ground. As of 8 AM, the NHC has issued its last advisory for the storm, but you can follow its progress using the NWS weather pages and radar.

At the moment, it appears that everything is as quiet as it can be. There are no active named storms, and Invest-91 is still not organized. Take a pause, and get ready for more. And remember that the season maximum is tomorrow. It’s hopefully all downhill from there.

A persistent low has organized into Tropical Storm Hermine in the southwest corner of the Gulf Of Mexico. And the remnants of Gaston is moving into waters that are more conducive for organization.

Hermine is a broad storm just off the Mexican Coast, and is forecast to drift northward towards Texas. Hermine is forecast for a landfall tomorrow morning, and then dissipate to a depression by Thursday. On the satellite image, I have observed a large plume of moisture from this storm flowing all the way to northern Florida and southeast Georgia, including Glynn County. That plume is moving south, so the 30 percent chance of rain we have today will fall to ten percent as the plume clears us.

The remnants of Gaston is still moving west, at around 12 MPH. There’s barely any storm there, but there is still a 1008 MB low. Gaston is moving into waters with more moisture and better winds soon, so the NHC is now posting a 70 percent chance Gaston will regenerate. Since I can’t find any track on this storm, I have no clear idea where it will go, but I’ll be it will be south of Cuba. Remember, though, this might be a fool’s bet. It could make a turn towards the north and menace the Georgia coast.

A new tropical wave is over Africa, at 14 west. I’m keeping an eye on this one.

And remember, we still have three days until the season maximum.

This is just a test post to see if Twitter can pick it up.

Hurricane Earl will either brush the Outer Banks or move right over it tomorrow morning at 2 AM. Either way, Cape Hatteras and points west might be truly devastated. Earl is a large, powerful category four hurricane with winds of 145 MPH and a wind field 230 miles from its center.

I will be following the progress of Earl all day, with weather stations, radar, news and webcams.

Here’s a list of handy links:
Twitter
Weather Underground
National Weather Service Radar (NWS page for Morehead City is very slow to load)
Google News

I’ll have some webcams later.

As of the 8 AM advisory, Earl had winds of 145 MPH and a central pressure of 932 MB. The storm is traveling NNW at 18 MPH.

Also, if you feel the need, please consider contributing something to the Red Cross. I’d wait until tomorrow to see what the real needs are, but if there is real trouble please don’t hesitate.

Red Cross

Hurricane Earl is prompting the evacuation of the barrier islands of North Carolina, and there is a hurricane warning for the entire North Carolina coast. North of there, a hurricane watch has been declared as far north as Delaware.

If you want to follow the progress of the warnings and evacuation orders, you can use this news.google.com search link.

As of the 11 AM advisory, Earl had winds of 125 MPH and a central pressure of 943 MB. The predicted path of Earl is still somewhat ambiguous but there’s a high probability that the storm will march along the east coast all the way up to New York, Maine and Newfoundland.

Even though Earl will miss Glynn County by at least 400 miles tomorrow afternoon, we will still have heavy surf and strong rip tides through Friday. The NWS has an alert for Glynn County beaches for five to seven foot swells Thursday, with eight foot swells possible. Fortunately, the tide cycles won’t make them any worse.

Tropical Storm Fiona will be moving almost directly north and will not be a threat to the US coast. However, a new tropical depression, TD Nine, may or may not be a threat. As of the 11 AM advisory, TD nine will be traveling generally towards Puerto Rico and Cuba for the next few days. After that, I’m just not sure. TD nine is forecast to strengthen to tropical storm status sometime today, and if it does is will be named Gaston.

In addition to Danielle, Earl, and Fiona there is now another spot in the Atlantic, Invest-98, a vigorous tropical wave that might travel to the Gulf via the southern Cuba route.

About three hours ago, Earl gained enough strength to be considered a category four hurricane. As of the 5 AM advisory, Earl had winds of 135 MPH and a central pressure of 931 MB. Earl is still forecast to make its closest approach to coastal Glynn County at 2 PM on Thursday, when it will be 450 miles away.

As Earl has grown stronger, so has its wind field and cloud cover expanded. Tropical storm force winds extend out from the center for 200 miles. As for the cloud cover, that looks about the same.

At this point, unless something really unusual happens, I’m standing down any alert for Glynn County. There just does not seem time for Earl to jog towards the west. We might see some clouds and strange winds. At the least, we can expect heavy surf Thursday afternoon and evening as Earl passes.

Fiona is forecast to stay a tropical storm through Sunday, and will pass about 750 miles east of us at that time.

And there’s a new spot, Invest-98, another strong tropical wave, getting ready to organize. The track I have seen of this storm shows that it might travel almost due west towards the Yucatan. It’s far to early to tell, but I can’t see a threat for us from this storm any time soon.

This is the first time in quite a while that I have seen four such storms at once in the Atlantic. And we still have ten days before the season maximum, on September ninth. What does the rest of the season hold for us?

There’s a lot of new information in the 5 PM update from the NHC.

As of the 5 PM advisory, Hurricane Earl is now a category five storm with 135 MPH winds and a central pressure of 948 MB. The track for the storm has not moved east or west, but the time of passage has moved back a few hours. Earl is now forecast to pass Glynn County at just before 2 PM Thursday.

The intensity forecast has been updated – and it says that Earl will have winds of 145 MPH or more by tomorrow.

I’ve been watching the progress of Earl as it has passed Puerto Rico. You can follow the NWS page for Puerto Rico here. Pay particular to the 3-day history link under the current conditions.

Tropical Storm Fiona has been declared by the NHC. This storm is forecast to make a slow turn towards the NW, then move north over Bermuda in about a week. As of the 5 PM advisory, Fiona had winds of 40 MPH and a central pressure of 1007 MB.

The NHC’s discussion on Hurricane Earl included this warning:

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY…IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT…IF ANY…PARTS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS WEEK.

This is a very timely warning. Earl reached hurricane status yesterday, and now has winds of 110 MPH and a central pressure of 965 MB. Earl is forecast to intensify to at least 130 MPH winds by Wednesday, and sustain that until Thursday.

At the same time, Earl is forecast to be making its closest approach to the Georgia coast. From the tracking map, it looks like the center or Earl will be a bit over 500 miles from the Georgia coast during the pass and that it will occur sometime Thursday morning. Although the trend is for the storm track to drift westward a little bit every day, it still would not bring Earl close enough for an evacuation of Glynn County.

However, I could be very wrong, so I will keep a very close eye on the storm, hour by hour. Even if the storm stays as far away as its current track suggests, we will still be within the outer edges of the cloud and wind field. Rip tides, rain, strange winds and tornadoes are all possible.

And, too, even if the Georgia coast is clear, both North and South Carolina are not. From this track, the Outer Banks will be getting a bad dose of Earl over the weekend. If the storm track moves towards the west, South Carolina will not escape some of the stronger effects.

The developing storm Invest-97 keeps showing signs of organizing. The NHC now rates this storm as having a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression. This storm’s current tracks show it following in the footsteps of Danielle and Earl, and curving up towards Bermuda. The intensity of Invest-97 is forecast to not reach hurricane status but stay a tropical storm. If it does become a tropical storm, it will be named Fiona.

The NWS has begun issuing rip tide warnings for coastal Georgia. This is due to both strong winds (20 MPH with higher gusts) in the afternoon, and strong tidal flow influenced by Hurricane Danielle. Exercise due care and caution if you go down to the beach today.

Hurricane Danielle has almost made its closest approach to Bermuda. That should happen sometime later today. The island nation will be well within the wind field of Danielle.

Tropical Storm Earl is beginning to gain strength. As of the 8 AM advisory, Earl had winds of 60 MPH and a central pressure of 999 MB. It is moving towards the west at 21 MPH, a pretty good clip. The storm is forecast to begin a northern turn by Monday morning. I’m still watching it very closely.

Earl is likely to bring strong rip tides to Georgia, even though it will be over 600 miles away as it passes on Thursday, assuming that reality follows the forecast track. What other effects it has depends on how close it gets, and how strong it is. The NHC is predicting that the storm will have winds of at least 120 MPH. Let’s hope Earl is not another Floyd and it stays well out to sea.

The tropical wave near the Cape Verde islands is showing even more signs of forming into a tropical depression. The NHC is now giving it an 80 percent chance of organizing.