Just a quick note: I’m on my way out the door in a few minuets so I’ll post more later. Tropical depression four has formed in the far east Atlantic and won’t be a threat to the U.S. coast for at least the next five days.
TS Chantal has officially dissipated, and is no longer tracked as a tropical storm by the NHC. This does not mean that the storm has become any less of a threat than it was before.
The storm can be clearly seen on water vapor satellite and it’s still moving in a general northwesterly direction. In my opinion, there is still a high chance that our weekend weather will be heavily influenced by the remnants of Chantal, including periods of rain, heavy surf, rip tides and possible tornadoes.
My apologies for not posting yesterday. I was out on a field call. This does not mean that I didn’t continue to follow the progress of TS Chantal; far from it.
For all three of the last advisories and graphics (5PM, 11PM and 5AM), the point of landfall for TS Chantal has remained squarely onto coastal Glynn County. The only thing that has changed is the timing.
As of the 5 AM advisory, TS Chantal will come onto land at 2 AM Sunday morning. The storm is forecast to have winds of 30 MPH. This last is good news.
Currently, Chantal is located at 16.5 north, 70.8 west and is moving towards the west at 29 MPH. The storm has winds of 45 MPH and a central pressure of 1011 MB. According to the NHC, Chantal is being torn apart by a combination of shear winds, its forward speed and interactions with land, and is losing its tropical characteristics.
I’m keeping a close eye on this storm, as forecasts can change.
As anticipated, the NHC has declared TS Chantal in the Atlantic. This was at 11 PM last night. As of the 5 AM advisory, TS Chantal is located at 10.6 north, 50.6 west, or about 2,100 miles from the Georgia coast. The advisory states that Chantal has a central pressure of 1007 MB and winds of 40 MPH.
The forward speed of TS Chantal is 25 MPH or about 85 hours away from Glynn County. Because the storm is moving so quickly, the NHC does not anticipate it to become a strong hurricane. The track has shifted northward a bit and is now brushing eastern Cuba at the end of the three-day forecast period. After that, the five day forecast shows the storm curving north, paralleling the east coast of the United States.
The hurricane hunters will be investigating the storm this afternoon, being on station at around 4:30 PM ET.
Lest anyone think that I’ve missed the ball on Invest 95L, I haven’t. I accidently posted a blog entry as a page. Here is what I wrote this morning:
What might be the next tropical storm system to threaten the Georgia coast may be beginning to form in the Atlantic ocean. The storm system, named Invest 95L, is located at 8 north, 37 west, or about 2,800 miles from St. Simons. As of the 8 PM discussion, the storm has a 1009 MB low.
At the moment, the NHC is giving the storm a 30% chance of further organization. A track map from Weather Underground shows that Invest 95L is heading towards the Florida east coast with a near brush in eight to ten days. Of course, the track will change, the only question I have at the moment is the direction and magnitude of the change.
I’d like to note that this post is being written on the desktop of my new Windows 7 machine, which is still being operated by remote desktop. I’m still waiting on the monitor.
As of the 8PM discussion from the NHC, Invest 95L now has a 70% chance of organizing. The environment is now labeled as “conducive to development.” This is a far stronger statement than what I saw this morning. The NHC expects the storm to be organized enough to become either a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday morning. If Invest 95L becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Chantal.
For some good news, the track has shifted southward of Cuba. That’s a good trend as far as I’m concerned.
I’ll know much more tomorrow afternoon, as the Hurricane Hunters will be flying into the storm at that time.